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Following on from our hugely popular interview with T.S. Kelso, part 2 covers his thoughts on space sustainability, LEO\u2019s impact on space safety and his plans beyond retirement.\u00a0<\/p>\n
To be blunt, no. Earth orbit is a global commons and all countries\u2014regardless of their political or economic philosophies\u2014need to work together to preserve it for current and future use. Individual countries\u2014no matter their good intentions\u2014cannot effectively address issues that affect us all on their own.\u00a0<\/p>\n
We need participation and leadership not only from Europe and the US, but from other major space powers like China, Russia, India, and Japan. And all countries need to share their tracking data as freely and transparently as possible\u2014a role that until now has primarily only been performed by the US.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Sharing orbital data, whether provided by satellite operators or from space surveillance networks, seems to be the next challenge. We need to find ways to provide unrestricted access to the best data available in a way that ensures nobody chooses lesser-quality data due to cost, while also ensuring that those who collect, process, and provide that data are adequately compensated. It will be no small task to find the right way to equitably cover the costs.\u00a0<\/p>\n
To understand why this is necessary, we have only to realize that everyone has different risk profiles. That is, decisionmakers often make different decisions even when operating with the same data. Resolving these differences, for example, in whether or not to perform a collision avoidance maneuver, can be challenging enough using the same data and quickly becomes unmanageable when using different data. And as activity in space continues to grow, it will become increasingly likely that this may lead to decisions with wide-ranging consequences that might otherwise have been avoidable.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It is pretty obvious that satellite populations in LEO are growing rapidly and will require much more resources to properly conduct STM, due to faster speeds, shorter timelines, and the complexities of accurately modeling satellite drag (when compared to other orbital regimes). When many of us learn of the numbers of satellites being launched, we are left wondering why so many.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The fact that we may be able to launch this many satellites doesn\u2019t necessarily mean we should. More open and transparent processes need to be in place for those launching these constellations to explain what drives these numbers and give other users of the space environment an opportunity to raise issues on how those constellations might impact their use of the space environment. Doing that up front might lead to solutions that better protect everyone\u2019s rights.\u00a0<\/p>\n
And data needs to be available for those that want to assess potential issues that might otherwise not be apparent. For example, while a particular constellation might be able to make a business case for their constellation operating on its own, that business case might be significantly weakened with the addition of many similar constellations. Ultimately, that might lead to failed businesses that strand hundreds or thousands of satellites in Earth orbit.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Without these exchanges among stakeholders up front, these potential issues may be passed down to be handled by an STM system that is not adequately prepared to do so.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Yes, I can, and hopefully by now, you can, too.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Data is fundamental to everything we do. SDA was able to supplement US government tracking data, that didn\u2019t know when a satellite had just maneuvered or when it might maneuver in the future, simply by sharing data they already had. Transparency of that data builds trust\u2014a vital component for working together to maintain safety of flight. And sharing data during normal operations ensures not only that everyone understands it, but that they are prepared to use it properly in times of urgency.\u00a0<\/p>\n
And sharing data allows us to objectively assess how we are doing with regard to achieving our tactical and strategic objectives. It is important not to become overly reliant on our processes without critically assessing the data being used, to ensure that some error hasn\u2019t occurred which might make that data unsuitable for operational use.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Well, just because I am retired does not mean I will be simply sitting back and watching. I will continue to operate CelesTrak, which is now a non-profit, with the mission to educate the space community on what is going on in Earth orbit. Not only is it important for students, educators, and researchers to better understand how to apply astrodynamics principles, but also to help inform policymaking and the creation of legislation for those who do not have the technical background. I expect this role will keep me busy for many years to come.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Watch this space for announcement of this year\u2019s T.S. Kelso award winner.<\/p>\n
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